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Tunisia, January-3 Volume
5.
14.01.2003
Hopes for a Rally in
Tunisian Tourism |
Tunisia was host to some
unusual visitors last week, as adrenaline-addicted
rally drivers sped down the country on their way
to Libya and Egypt. However, much as this year’s
Paris-Dakar (or more precisely Marseille-Sharm el
Sheikh) drivers were welcomed, many inside the
tourist industry feel that it will take more than
exhaust fumes and Stéphane Peterhansel to bring
back the tourists to this North African nation.
Last year was a particularly bad one for
the tourism sector. While initially, there was
cautious optimism that the September 11th, 2001
attacks had failed to dampen the European market’s
enthusiasm for Tunisia, in April this optimism was
badly shaken when a suicide attack on a synagogue
on the resort island of Djerba killed 21,
including 14 German tourists. Coming at the
beginning of the tourist high season, the effects
were disastrous. There were drastic falls in
arrivals, low occupancy rates and even the
wholesale withdrawal of certain tourist operators,
such as the British company, Prestige Holidays.
According to the Ministry of Tourism’s
latest figures, total non-resident entries
declined by 8.3% year-on-year in the period
January to November 2002. This translated into a
14% decline in tourist revenues, which fell from
$1.6bn in 2001 to $1.4bn in 2002. The economy has
felt the impact particularly acutely, as tourism
is the country’s major foreign currency earner at
roughly 17% of total earnings.
The anomaly
between entries and revenue is largely due to
changes in the composition of the visitors.
European tourists, who accounted for 67% of the
market in 2001, were far scarcer in 2002, with a
20.4% reduction, led by the Germans (down 35.1%)
and Austrians (down 33.1%).
On the other
hand, there was a considerable boost in tourists
from the Maghreb countries - up 18.7%. The Libyan
market in particular performed well, expanding by
24.2%. These results now make Libyans and the
Algerians the first and third most important
sources of tourism, with the French the most
important amongst the Europeans.
Three
basic inferences have been drawn from this.
Firstly, that the Maghreb market has been
important in mitigating the decline in the
European market. Secondly, that despite this fact,
tourism revenue has still been hit as Maghreb
visitors spend less than their European
counterparts - or at least, their spending is not
so easily accounted for as they do not go to the
conventional tourist resorts. Thirdly, it is those
most familiar with Tunisia who continue to show
faith in the country.
The last illustrates
the point that for a sector like tourism, image is
all-important. The massive decline in the German
market is no doubt due to potential package
tourists unfamiliar with the region being scared
away by images of bombs and terrorism. On the
other hand, tourists from neighbouring and
historically close countries, such as Libya,
Algeria, France and Italy, have proved more
resilient.
Another factor worthy of
mention is the rapidly expanding Eastern European
market. Led by Russian arrivals, up 74.7% in the
2001-2002 period, the East Europeans saw their
share of total European arrivals increase from
5.5% in the period January-November 2001 to 6.9%
in the same period of 2002.
Although the
high season was pretty catastrophic for Tunisia,
there is strong evidence of a slow recovery since
late August-early September. In November, total
non-resident arrivals increased by 5%
year-on-year, including an increase of 2.2%
amongst Europeans and a 7.8% increase amongst
Maghrebis.
The very latest figures, which
show the number of nights spent in hotels,
(irrespective of origin) are also positive. For
the first week of 2003, approximately 336 000
nights were spent – compared to approximately 271
000 in the same week of 2002. This represents a
progression of 24.2%. Significantly, the occupancy
rate for that week, 29.6%, is above that recorded
in 2001 (28.4%) – the figure might seem low, but
it is respectable for the low season.
It
is such figures which have put the government in a
bullish mood for 2003. According to Reuters,
government sources are estimating an increase of
15% in 2003: 5.5m tourists (100 000 more than in
2001) bringing in $1.72bn.
This may be
over-optimistic. Leading figures within the sector
are more hesitant, citing the looming potential
war in Iraq as the number one question mark. Even
though Tunisia is relatively far removed from
events, the duration and effects of the war are
important factors in creating uncertainty.
Tunisia’s tourist sector is also
structurally placed in a niche – tourist
operator-driven package holidays – which is most
sensitive to bad publicity, even when this
negative image derives from other countries in the
region.
Economically, this type of tourism
is also plagued by a low level of profitability.
This is not due so much to a low level of linkages
- industry, particularly agro-industry, has
developed strongly through providing inputs to the
tourism sector – but rather, it is due to the
contracting relationship between hoteliers and
tour operators. In this arena, the economic fight
is being waged most acutely.
During the
1990s, the Tunisian tourist market experienced a
long boom, particularly in the hotel construction
sector. Attracted by government incentives, a
large number of investors built hotels in the
country. Many were inexperienced in tourist
services, and found ready partners in European
tour operators, who would often hire the premises
for a contracted period.
While the
relationship was beneficial for a while, in the
latest cyclical downturn it has turned sour. There
has been a remarkable consolidation amongst
European tour operators, with new giants like TUI
now able to set far more onerous terms on the
local hotels and operators. The market Tunisia has
traditionally attracted from Europe - the cheap,
‘sun and sea’ tourism - is also highly
competitive, with a largely homogenous product to
be found in Spain, Greece, Egypt, Turkey, Italy,
Croatia, and so on. The market might be large, but
it also faces competition from newer phenomena
such as low cost airlines, which are currently
gaining a larger market share in the EU.
All this has resulted in the 2002 downturn
pushing some local hotels to the wall. However, it
has also resulted in officials and leading figures
in the industry sitting up and taking notice.
The 2002 World Bank report on strategy for
tourist development in Tunisia points out that the
Tunisian market is largely undiversified when
compared to its competitors, both in terms of
product and in terms of tourist provenance.
Diversification is the key. Health, for
example, already a principal magnet for Libyan
tourists, is seen as one vector of potential
growth. This fits in with Tunisia’s place as the
second spa destination in the world, after France.
The World Bank singles this out as one of the most
potentially dynamic sources of tourist
development. Business tourism is another potential
money-spinner. Even Tunisia’s cultural patrimony
is being re-examined and rediscovered, with EU
funding for a number of projects, such as the
regeneration of the Dogga Roman bath ruins.
Carthage, Kairouan, and the Roman amphitheatre at
El Djem – the country has its fair share of
ancient sites largely overlooked since mass
tourism took off in the 1970s.
However,
the country still retains a poorly developed image
and a low level of services. But there are signs
of things being done. The Tunisian government is
expanding its privatisation programme to include
many tourism companies. Meanwhile, new air links
are being developed with the Gulf region, as
Levantine and Gulf Arab tourists are currently
less common than those coming from Ireland.
Sport is also important. Perhaps Tunisia
cannot lay claim to the Paris-Dakar route just
yet, but elsewhere, sport is being cited as of
serious tourism potential. Golf is the most
serious contender, with courses springing up
rapidly in recent years at sites such as Tozeur,
Tunisia’s desert oasis (much to some locals’
chagrin). The attraction is obvious, with
Tunisians intent on marketing themselves as a
meteorological paradise for rain-sodden golfers in
the north and Far East.
On the horizon too
shimmers the hope of Tunisia hosting the football
World Cup. With the competition as good as
promised to Africa in 2010, the government decided
at the end of December 2002 to enter the
competition to hold the tournament alongside other
serious contenders such as South Africa, Egypt,
Morocco and Nigeria.
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