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LET US BE THE FIRST TO SAY IT: We owe a debt of gratitude
to France, and particularly to its foreign minister, Dominique
de Villepin. He has clarified the present geopolitical
situation and put an end to illusions. This week M. de
Villepin cast aside months of diplomatic pretense and revealed
hitherto unspoken truths about French foreign policy:
First, France does not, in fact, seek the disarmament of
Iraq or even the elimination of Saddam Hussein's programs for
producing weapons of mass destruction. M. de Villepin declared
at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council last
Monday, "Already we know for a fact that Iraq's weapons of
mass destruction programs are being largely blocked, even
frozen." The French government thereby acknowledged that
Saddam Hussein does indeed have such programs--but according
to M. de Villepin France does not consider it necessary for
Iraq to do away with them.
Second, it is now clear that the government of France does
not, in fact, support implementation of U.N. Security Council
Resolution 1441, which it helped negotiate this past November.
That resolution stated that Iraq was being given "a final
opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations,"
obligations that Iraq had agreed to under the terms of the
cease-fire ending the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and that it has
failed to fulfill for the last dozen years. That resolution
also declared that if Iraq failed to comply, it would face
"serious consequences," understood by all Security Council
members to mean war. Now France has declared that it will not
insist on Iraqi compliance or on "serious consequences" for
its failure to comply. As M. de Villepin told the Security
Council this past Monday, "nothing justifies envisaging
military action." Nothing.
Again, we thank M. de Villepin for his candor. It is likely
to produce beneficial effects on both sides of the Atlantic.
In Europe, France's provocation will have the effect of
forcing European governments to choose sides between
U.S.-sponsored action to disarm Iraq and French determination
to protect Saddam Hussein from American power. We believe that
is a healthy thing, in part because it will reveal that France
in no way speaks for all European governments, perhaps not
even for a majority of them. The United Kingdom, Spain, Italy,
Poland, the Czech Republic, Turkey, and other European allies
are already committed to supporting an American-led action,
and more will join the coalition. An American invasion of Iraq
will not be a unilateral action, not by a long shot.
What is more, while European discomfort with American power
is a reality, there is discomfort, too, with the aggressive
pacifism of Gerhard Schröder and, for now at least, of Jacques
Chirac. Nor are all Europeans likely to be entirely
comfortable with France's increasingly notable propensity to
appease vicious dictators, not just Saddam but also Robert
Mugabe, whom the French have just invited to Paris in apparent
violation of a European Union travel ban. Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld raised a furor in Paris and Berlin last week
when he contrasted the "old Europe" of France and Germany to
the "new Europe" of Poland, the Czech Republic, and other
recent entrants into the European Union. The sputtering
outrage at Rumsfeld's remarks in Paris and Berlin is, we
suspect, a sign of anxiety that the new entrants cannot be
counted on to follow the Franco-German lead against the United
States.
More important, however, is the clarifying effect that the
French position will have on the American debate. For several
months now, a great swath of the American foreign policy
elite, both Democrats and Republicans, have been trying to
finesse the question of what to do about Iraq. They have been
insisting that any military action by the United States has to
be undertaken with the authority of the U.N. Security Council.
Those who hold this view have considered Secretary of State
Colin Powell their great champion. And they considered
Powell's negotiation of Security Council Resolution 1441 to be
a great victory for the multilateralist approach, not only
potentially providing the United States with the legitimacy of
U.N. authorization for any war but also opening the
possibility of achieving the disarmament of Iraq peacefully.
For months, proponents of this approach enjoyed the luxury
of not having to choose between their professed devotion to a
multilateralist foreign policy and their professed commitment
to disarm Iraq. Their position allowed the appearance of
toughness and resolve--"These weapons must be dislodged from
Saddam Hussein, or Saddam Hussein must be dislodged from
power," Senator Joe Biden declared last July--while also
providing a good vantage point for attacking "hawks" and
"unilateralists" and "neo-conservatives." Anyone who suggested
that a new round of U.N. inspections would not work, as Vice
President Dick Cheney did in August, was demonized as a
warmonger. Anyone who suggested that the United States did not
necessarily need Security Council authorization to legitimize
the removal of Saddam Hussein from power, and who pointed out
that the United States likely could not obtain such
authorization, was denounced as a "unilateralist" determined
to destroy world order. And for some there was another great
advantage: Those who opposed war against Iraq under any
circumstances, but who for political reasons did not want to
admit it, could hide behind the demand for "multilateralism."
If the French agreed, they argued, the United States could go
to war. No one was forced to answer the question: What if,
despite everything, the French did not agree?
The French have put an end to that game. It is now likely
that U.N. Security Council authorization for war will be
unobtainable, regardless of whether Saddam complies with
Resolution 1441. Therefore, American politicians and the
foreign policy elite will have to make clear, once and for
all, whether or not they support the disarming of Iraq and the
removal of Saddam's regime from power, by force, and without
U.N. authorization. There can be no more obfuscation.
Most important perhaps, the faux-hawkish multilateralists
will not be able to hide behind Colin Powell anymore.
Secretary Powell has taken a clear stand. Having given Saddam
one last chance to disarm peacefully, and having sincerely
tried to work with the French, Powell is ready to move forward
with the disarmament of Iraq by force and without a new U.N.
authorization. In response to French and German demands to
give more time to the inspectors, Powell last week insisted,
"Inspections will not work." (We wonder if Powell will now
suffer the same widespread condemnation that Cheney did when
he said just this five months ago.)
As Powell argues, it would be ridiculous now to extend the
time for inspections. If Saddam had intended to disarm he
already would be doing so. Powell voiced appropriate
skepticism about the real intentions of those who are asking
that the inspectors be given more time. In an obvious
reference to the French government, Powell wondered aloud
"whether they're serious about bringing it to a conclusion at
some time."
We wonder the same thing about some American politicians.
For while Powell and his deputy, Richard Armitage, have
reacted with consistency and integrity to the turn of events
both in Baghdad and at the Security Council, some prominent
leaders of what until now might have been called the Powell
camp in Congress seem to have abandoned the secretary of
state. Thus Senator Chuck Hagel is still pleading, à la
française, for the inspectors to be given more time.
"Let's wait and give the inspectors an opportunity to work
this through," Hagel argued this past week, without even
bothering to hint at how much more time they should be given.
And Hagel went on to argue that it would be "a huge mistake if
the president went forward without the support of our allies
and the consent of the United Nations."
The funny thing is, Hagel professed to have a different
view back in September. Then he argued that "if we run the
diplomatic track . . . and in the end we cannot get a Security
Council resolution, then the United States has exhausted all
the means, diplomatic means and channels, and then we'll make
a call. And if, in fact, we find at the end of the day that
the Brits and the Turks and others are with us, then we'll
have the option to do that." Four months later, the Bush
administration, under Powell's lead, has done precisely what
Hagel demanded. And, indeed, "the Brits and the Turks and
others are with us," just as Hagel suggested. But lo and
behold, now it is not enough for Hagel after all. He still
opposes war without "the consent of the United Nations," a
consent everyone knows will probably not be forthcoming.
Wouldn't it be simpler if Hagel, and others who share his
view, simply dropped the pretense? For them, as for the
French, it isn't about disarming Saddam. They just oppose the
war.
And it isn't even about multilateralism. As Powell points
out, and as we and others have pointed out many times, with or
without a U.N. Security Council Resolution, the United States
will not "go it alone" in Iraq. When the president announces
that the United States is going to war, and the attack begins,
the United States will have many allies indeed: in addition to
the nations already mentioned, Arab states like Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Qatar, and probably others. Australia has already
begun sending troops, even though the Australians live
thousands of miles away from the zone of crisis.
We would prefer it if France and Germany also joined forces
with the United States in common defense of international
security. We would prefer it if the U.N. Security Council
supported war against Saddam. But most of all we want to see
the United States and a coalition of willing partners take the
action necessary to defend and preserve international
security. The international situation has clarified. The case
against Saddam is clear-cut. The Bush administration is,
finally, united around the need for military action. Now the
president, who has led us to this point, can give the word.
--Robert Kagan and William Kristol |