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Two States, Not Necessarily By M.J. Rosenberg, Israel Policy Forum (The following analysis dated June 20, 2003 makes the point that Israeli settlements and Palestinian terrorism threaten peace based on two states, and that without a two state solution, the future of Israel as a Jewish, democratic state is in doubt. For further commentaries by M.J. Rosenberg, see israelpolicyforum.org) There are many bits of conventional wisdom surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Among the most common is the belief that it ultimately will end in a two-state solution. Prime Minister Sharon's endorsement of a Palestinian state - the first time that any Israeli prime minister has formally endorsed the two-state solution - has confirmed the idea that, sooner or later, President Bush's vision of "two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in security and peace" will be realized. But, like all conventional wisdom, this may not be correct: a two-state solution is not preordained. In fact, without immediate, serious movement to implement the roadmap, the two-state solution may simply go by the boards. The reasons for its potential unraveling are addressed in this week's Bitter Lemons (http://www.bitterlemons.org/) by Yossi Alpher, former head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, security adviser to Prime Minister Barak, and retired representative of the American Jewish Committee in Jerusalem. Alpher blames both Israelis and Palestinians for helping to do in the two-state solution. He writes that "while most Palestinians endorse the idea, they also insist that Israel accept the right of return of Palestinian refugees to the Jewish state, which contradicts the logic of a two state solution and is unacceptable to the Israeli mainstream. And President Bush has yet to prove that he is willing and able to enforce or impose his welcome vision of a genuine two state solution. "Meanwhile the settlements and outposts spread, ostensibly ensuring that Israel will 'win' the territorial war, even as Palestinian population growth ensures that Israel will lose the demographic war and cease to be a Jewish, democratic state. With every passing day it becomes more difficult to repartition mandatory Palestine… between Arab and Jewish states. More and more Palestinians, including many moderates, are reverting to advocacy of a single state solution, which might be called 'Israel' for a few decades but will gradually become an Arab state with an embattled Jewish minority. "

In short, the alternative to a two-state solution is a one-state solution. That state would not, in any real sense, be Israel.

Fifty-five years after the establishment of Israel, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that the State of Israel was created to serve as a Jewish refuge; a place whose borders would be controlled by Jews; a place with Jewish institutions and a clear Jewish majority.

In fact, even the term "Jewish state" is something of a misnomer. The title of Theodor Herzl's 1896 book, which initiated political Zionism, has always been mistranslated as "The Jewish State." In fact, it was "Der Judenstaat," or the "Jews' State." It was not the Jewish faith that was Herzl's primary concern, but Jews as people and their right to live in security. He did not specify any particular borders for the state, or even initially where it would be located. His only goal was security - security he believed Jews could only achieve in a state with a Jewish majority.

Lately, it has become clear that the idea of Israel as a "Jewish state" remains controversial even among some Palestinians who accept Israel's right to exist. Well, they need to get over it. Denying Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state is tantamount to denying its right to exist, period. Without Jewish sovereignty, Israel is not Israel.

This cuts in two directions. The first is that the Jewish nature of Israel is not ever going to be an issue for negotiations. That argument ended 55 years ago when the state was established. The other is that maintaining Jewish control of the West Bank and Gaza, and thereby permitting the replacement of a Jewish majority with an Arab one, would represent the death of the Zionist dream.

Frankly, it is hard to imagine that the pioneers who established Israel would ever have contemplated trading away Israel's Jewish majority. In 1948, the Holocaust was too recent a memory for a Zionist to seriously argue that historic borders were more significant than establishing a majority Jewish state in whatever piece of Palestine that they could.

After all, if even a tiny Jewish state had existed on the Mediterranean coast during the Hitler era, it would have been sufficient to save millions. That is why the Israelis in 1947 accepted a partition plan that left them without even the holy sites of Jerusalem. They understood that Zionism was not about holy sites, it was about people. Just as today, it is not about the right to live in the West Bank and Gaza, but the necessity of a flourishing Jewish state in Israel itself - one in which Jews not only constitute a majority, but are secure.

The roadmap does not necessarily constitute the last chance to salvage the two-state solution - and therefore Israel's future - but its failure would be a tremendous setback. The good news is that both sides seem to realize it, as does the Bush Administration, which is now engaged in advancing the roadmap at the highest levels.

Unfortunately, small steps will not suffice. Without major strides to end the terror, coupled with significant movement on settlements, the process will not be able to withstand the inevitable difficulties that lie ahead. Both sides need to see and to feel the benefits of compliance with the roadmap. Secretary of State Colin Powell should use his visit to the region, beginning today, to establish some real momentum; momentum which envoy John Wolf can build upon. This process either moves forward or it lurches into reverse. In the Middle East, there really is no status quo. Standing still means reeling backwards.