It was the day before Sergey Brin's 30th birthday, and by all
rights he should have been on top of the world. Here onstage in
front of some 300 peers—engineers and other geeks attending a
conference on Internet search—he was answering softball questions
about Google, the search-engine company he co-founded five years
ago. Brin likes to do this, and who can blame him? Google is among
the most successful Silicon Valley startups of all time, and
wherever Brin goes these days, he gets treated like a celebrity.
"How did Google become such an icon?" the moderator asked. And,
"Will you acquire Microsoft?"
But this time Brin wasn't reveling in it; he responded more like
a rock star being asked to play his greatest hit one ... more ...
time. Asked about consolidation in the search business, he said, "I
preferred things during the bubble"—when Google was not so
famous—"and we could go on doing our own thing." At the end of his
presentation he repeated the thought, saying that coping with
Google's torrid growth had become the worst part of his job: "It's a
distraction from pure technology, which is what I love."
When Google goes public, most likely by this spring, Brin will
become a billionaire. Make that a multibillionaire. So to hear him
pining for the good old days sounds strange—especially since, thanks
in part to Google, the Internet has never been more useful or fun
than it is right now. Google's search service has changed the way
everyone from CEOs to their teenagers look for and think about
information, dominating search not just from its own site but also
as the engine for major sites like Yahoo, AOL, and Amazon. Plus
Google has triumphed in more than search; in the past two years it
has astonished the online world by proving that Internet advertising
really works. And in what may be the ultimate sign of success,
Google has even become a verb, as in "I'm googling for the numbers
now."
When the numbers pertain to Google, they look very, very good. In
18 months the company has quadrupled in size, now employing more
than 1,300 people. Annualized revenues have sextupled, to about $900
million. Annualized pretax profits have grown by a factor of 23, to
about $350 million, according to a handful of people who have been
told the figures. Only a few high-tech companies in history, like
Apple, Compaq, Sun, and more recently Amazon.com, have generated
that kind of revenue growth so fast. None has made as much money
doing it—not even Netscape, which grew faster than Google has but
made money in only one of its years.
In fact, the only question about Google's future that people seem
to debate is when, not if, the IPO will come. Barring any
last-minute exception, by April 30 the company will be required to
start publishing its financials—an SEC rule for firms with as many
shareholders or option holders as Google has. So, the thinking goes,
why not make a virtue of that loss of secrecy by raising buckets and
buckets of cash?—as much as $2 billion, as analysts currently
predict. A Google IPO of that size would be the largest by any
startup in high-tech history and would probably value the company at
about $20 billion, just a couple billion dollars north of what
Google valued itself for when it proposed using stock to acquire
social-networking site Friendster last summer.
As a soon-to-be billion-dollar baby, Brin ought to be in his
glory. So why the dourness on stage? Over the course of four months
FORTUNE has peered behind the curtain at Google, conducting more
than two dozen interviews with employees, friends of employees,
investors, business partners, and people exploring employment or
business deals with the company. We talked to another dozen veterans
of the search, online-advertising, and computer businesses. And we
talked to the Google brain trust: Brin, co-founder Larry Page, CEO
Eric Schmidt, and top exec Omid Kordistani. The reporting revealed
plenty about a company that has succeeded on the Net beyond anyone's
imagination. But it also turned up signs of trouble—enough to worry
any founder and raise alarms for investors considering (and who
isn't?) betting on the IPO.
We'll sing more of Google's praises later, but first the
worrisome news: Google has grown arrogant, making some of its
executives as frustrating to deal with in negotiations as AOL's
cowboy salesmen during the bubble. It has grown so fast that
employees and business partners are often confused about who does
what. A rise of stock- and option-stoked greed is creating rifts
within the company. Employees carp that Google is morphing in
strange and nerve-racking ways. And talk swirls over the question of
who's really in charge: CEO Schmidt or co-founders Brin and Page?
Such travails are hardly surprising in a startup that has grown
so big and so fast. But now is a particularly unfortunate time for
Google to be facing them. Competitors—the biggest and most powerful
on the Net—are coming on strong. Microsoft is spending billions to
build its own search engine that will be incorporated in both its
online service MSN and its new operating system, due in 2006. That
could push Google off tens of millions of PCs. Yahoo in the past
year has methodically acquired the other top search engine
companies—Inktomi and Overture Services—and is believed to be weeks
away from ending its long partnership with Google so that it can
compete head-to-head. Other heavyweights—AOL, eBay, and Amazon—are
also drawing battle plans. All are aiming for what they see as
Google's weak spot: lack of customer lock-in. Though its search
engine is a wonderful tool for using the Net, what happens when a
better search engine comes along? Or just a good-enough search
engine in the hands of a powerful rival? Is there anything to keep
users wedded to Google? "Google has a lot of momentum, but its
current position is probably not defensible," says an investor.
Google's foes have a much firmer hold on customers, argues Seth
Godin, a well-known Internet consultant and editor of last summer's
widely distributed online book What Should Google Do? Competitors
have troves of personal information about users that they draw on to
customize products, ads, and services—consider the way My Yahoo
brings you information on everything from your portfolio to fixing
your house. They will probably use that same information to tailor
search results. Google, meanwhile, knows little more about you than
what you are currently searching for.
Page says he doesn't spend much time worrying about competitors:
"That's not what we're about. We think of what we do as adding more
value to the world." Yet investors—stockholders and the limited
partners in Google-invested venture capital funds—are growing
nervous. And no wonder. Members of those groups count as insiders
who by standard IPO procedures will probably be required to wait at
least six months before cashing out. Google may well be worth $20
billion when it goes public; but it could be worth much less by the
time they can sell.
For Google's millions of users worldwide, and especially for its
fans in Silicon Valley, the fact that anything could be seriously
wrong there must strain credulity. In a short time Google has become
one of the world's best-loved brands. Movie stars like Gwyneth
Paltrow and ex-Presidents like Jimmy Carter drop by for visits. A
thousand people apply for jobs at Google every day.
All this from a couple of eager grad students. The founding of
Google is already the stuff of Silicon Valley legend. In 1995, Page
and Brin were roller-hockey-obsessed doctoral students in computer
science at Stanford. Brin was the talker of the two—originally from
Moscow, he trained on the trapeze and seriously considered joining
the circus. He and Page, a Michigan native, teamed to write a paper
on crafting a better search engine. In the course of three years,
they maxed out their credit cards building a prototype. Most search
engines at the time based their results on how often a certain word
appeared in any website; Brin and Page figured that more important
was the relevance of a site and how many other web pages linked to
it.
According to their algorithms, popularity mattered—and soon Brin
and Page gained it for themselves. Though web-search startups were a
dime a dozen, investors couldn't hand money over to Google fast
enough. When the founders showed Sun Microsystems co-founder Andy
Bechtolsheim a demo in the summer of 1998, he wrote a $100,000 check
on the spot. Brin and Page had to wait a month until Google actually
existed to cash it. In 1999 top venture capitalists Kleiner Perkins
and Sequoia Capital invested $25 million. "It was very unfashionable
to invest in a company like Google back then," said Michael Moritz,
the Sequoia partner in charge of the deal, in an interview with
FORTUNE last year. "But we thought Larry and Sergey were taking a
fresh look." Soon after, Yahoo anted up $10 million.
Google was becoming a household word, serving up an estimated 60
million searches a day. But it still had no real way to make money.
Revenues dribbled in, mostly from licensing the search service to
other sites. For more than a year, the board pressed Brin and Page
to get professional help, and in early 2001 they recruited Eric
Schmidt. The fit looked perfect: He had deep technical roots (a
Ph.D. in computer science and a run as CTO of Sun) and leadership
experience too—he had just spent four years as CEO of networking
pioneer Novell.
Most important was that even though Schmidt, now 48, was almost
old enough to be Brin's or Page's father, he wasn't interested in
pushing them aside, or in replacing the culture they had created.
From the beginning, Brin and Page had envisioned building a company
unlike most startups—an island of idealism where being too concerned
with money or power would give you warts. "In the early days Larry
and Sergey spent more time talking about how they weren't going to
make money—no user registration, no blast e-mails, no banner
advertising—than how they were," says a participant in Google's
early discussions. On Google's website, under the heading "Ten
things Google has found to be true," No. 6 still reads, "You can
make money without doing evil." Not doing evil is a common concern
around Google and loosely translates into avoiding anything that
mars Google's user experience, "even at the expense of revenue,"
says Cindy McCaffrey, Google's marketing chief and an early
employee.
All this was a little weird at first, Schmidt admits. He was
startled to discover that the founders tell the staff every Friday
how Google is doing, including an occasional detailed financial
review. "I said, 'You can't do that,' " Schmidt recalled in an
interview last year. But he realized that the meetings were
ingrained in Google's culture and united the staff, so he relented.
Schmidt focused instead on transforming Google into a
self-sustaining affair. Shortly after he arrived, he and the top
execs got much more aggressive about generating revenue. They came
up with a product, now known as Adwords, that allows users' search
terms to trigger relevant text ads that appear onscreen to the right
of the search results. It was similar to what another startup,
Overture Services, was offering. Advertisers pay Google based on how
many people click through to their site, allowing them to track
effectiveness easily.
Unveiled in February 2002, Adwords now has more than 150,000
advertisers, many of whom rave about the service. Seth Berkowitz,
the head of business development at Edmunds.com, an online car
shopping site, says the response rate for his ads on Google has been
so good that he has gone from buying $70,000 a month in advertising
to $250,000 a month in less than a year. "It's the cheapest and most
effective form of advertising ever created," Berkowitz says. He
figures that every dollar spent with Google generates about $1.70
back.
This year Google came up with Adsense, which puts ads on
nonsearch sites. Read about the New York marathon on
newyorktimes.com, for instance, and Adsense serves up ads for sports
drinks, running shoes, or whoever else pays. The ad businesses
supercharged Google's growth. Yet through it all, the company hewed
to Brin and Page's wacky vision, so that today Google seems firmly
ambered in the dot-com era. At its Mountain View, Calif.,
headquarters, Google serves free lunch and dinner, prepared by the
former chef of the Grateful Dead. It has an on-site masseuse. It
takes the staff to Lake Tahoe for the weekend once a year. Dogs are
welcome. The lobby and the office Brin and Page share are decorated
with bean-bag chairs and lava lamps. And the organization remains
almost entirely bureaucracy-free, a way of encouraging engineers to
run with good ideas as they hatch them. Brin points to an example:
Google News, which puts an astonishingly rich, up-to-the-minute
compilation of the world's headlines at the user's fingertips, grew
out of an engineer's self-directed project.
Sounds great! Well, maybe not. Those close to Google say that the
company has begun to more closely resemble a madhouse than any kind
of serene dot-com dream. It's a tough place to work, and a tough
place to do business with.
Beyond the bean-bagged lobby, 12-hour days are considered
standard, and an unspoken caste system has emerged. At the top are
the engineers, people in the mold of Brin and Page. At the bottom
are the contractors, the 30% of Google workers who labor alongside
full-timers—yet without benefits, stock options, or access to the
company intranet, not to mention to meetings or social events.
That's fostered anger in Google's overeducated ranks. For the most
part, it takes a degree from an Ivy League school, or MIT, Stanford,
CalTech, or Carnegie Mellon—America's top engineering schools—even
to get invited to interview. Brin and Page still keep a hand in all
the hiring, from executives to administrative assistants. And to
them, work experience counts far less than where you went to school,
how you did on your SATs, and your grade-point average. "If you've
been at Cisco for 20 years, they don't want you," says an employee.
Brin, Page, and Schmidt won't discuss specifics but agree that
Google often values brainpower over experience. "Larry and Sergey
have been far more disciplined about hiring than anyone I've ever
met," Schmidt says. "The result has been that they have a company
where fewer people can do a lot more."
Aversion to bureaucracy is turning out to be better in theory
than in practice. People who work at or do business with Google
worry that the company has outgrown that style. Ed Gilles, the CFO
at storage software company Veritas, was in the running to become
CFO at Google last year; he bowed out because he found the place too
chaotic. (Onetime Sun CFO George Reyes now holds the job.) And in
October, Sun co-founder Bill Joy and former Sun technology executive
Mike Clary—both of whom know Schmidt from his days at Sun—kicked the
tires at Google, only to walk away, telling others they were
bewildered by how out-of-control things seemed. Gilles and Clary
won't comment on their negotiations. Joy will say only that he
talked to Google about working there and that the talks never
reached a conclusion.
Business partners, meanwhile, have had trouble determining who
makes decisions among Google's employees. A CEO who is negotiating a
contract with Google and who asked to remain anonymous described a
Dilbert-esque series of meetings: "Typically half the people show up
20 minutes late, so you have to repeat your presentation; another
couple leave ten minutes early. Most of the time they're not paying
attention anyway, but messaging each other and their friends on
BlackBerrys and Danger hiptop machines." He says Google has hired so
many people in its middle ranks and given so many the same
title—project manager—that "no one can figure out who's in charge or
even what Google's licensing policy is." People inside Google say
the experience is far from unusual. "My take is that they are
crumbling under the weight of their own success a bit," the CEO
says.
The founders acknowledge that their company is more disorganized
than most, though they say it's not arrogant. "We had to deal with
arrogant dot-coms during the bubble, so it's something we take very
seriously," says Brin. If people aren't prepared in meetings, he
says, it's not because they think they're too good for them, but
because they're working around the clock. Brin and Page mandate that
employees spend 20% of their time on self-directed projects and
another 20% interviewing outside job candidates. Getting ready for
meetings (or showing up on time) doesn't always take priority. "It's
a penalty we pay for making that deliberate choice," says Brin.
Okay, but where's Schmidt in all this? As the imported grownup,
he was brought in to be a steadying hand. Yet people like Clary have
lobbed charges that control rests too heavily with the founders and
that Schmidt is just a figurehead. Friends of Schmidt defend him by
saying he is in an impossible position—the company is doing too well
to overhaul, especially just before an IPO. They believe that he
will take a much more significant and public leadership role after
the offering.
Page, Brin, and Schmidt say they run the company as a
triumvirate. Adds Schmidt: "Larry and Sergey have become my best
friends. We have lunch every Saturday at [sub chain] Quiznos. Larry
rollerblades in these itty-bitty shorts. He still looks like a
college kid. And Sergey comes in from a diving lesson. These are
special times."
Schmidt understands that investors like to know that someone is
in charge—and explains that, in the triumvirate, his is the last
word. "We seldom disagree," he says. "If we do, we put it to a vote
and whoever gets two votes wins. If it's a particularly egregious
disagreement and it's important enough, I'll override them and
they'll be mad at me for a while." What about the fact that Brin and
Page control large amounts of stock? "They have the final trump, but
they'd never use it—then they wouldn't get to see all the people
they've gotten used to eating lunch with," he says, implying that he
and the people he's hired would leave.
It's not likely that the internal issues will scare off potential
investors; what great company hasn't had hiccups on the way up? But
it isn't the best time for Google to show vulnerability—not with the
big boys on the Internet determined to win its users away. The most
immediate threat is Yahoo. It's expanding into new areas like
product search (helping people to find goods, read reviews, compare
prices, and buy) and local search (enabling users to find a plumber
or landscaper in their neighborhood). Google has prototype sites
that provide those services (froogle.google.com and
labs.google.com/location), but they're not nearly as good. With
about a 5% stake in Google, Yahoo goes quiet when talking about the
company. Yet it's likely Yahoo will dump the stock after the IPO.
Even sooner it will stop using Google's search on its site, relying
instead on its newly acquired units. Says Jeff Weiner, senior vice
president in charge of search: "We have every intention of deploying
Inktomi and Overture throughout all our search."
Then there's Microsoft. The company has an army of brainiacs
working on incorporating web search into MSN and its new operating
system, code-named Longhorn, due out in 2006. It plans to be able to
index every user's hard drive and use the information to provide
better searches. "All I'll say is that search is vitally important
to us," says Chris Payne, Microsoft's executive in charge of search.
Other competitors could jump into the fray soon. Executives at
America Online, Google's biggest partner, accounting for roughly 10%
of its revenue, have in meetings expressed concern that Google has
become too powerful to keep as a partner, according to a high-level
financier who was a party to the conversations. The problem for AOL
is that while Google supplies it with valuable search technology,
which AOL doesn't have, it is starting to compete with AOL in
products AOL does have—like news. Ultimately that could enable
Google to siphon off traffic and advertising dollars. "AOL's concern
is that Google wants to be a portal," says the source, who has been
on conference calls with AOL's search chief Gerry Campbell. (AOL,
which is a unit of FORTUNE's parent, Time Warner, would comment only
that "Google is a very important partner, and we look forward to
continuing to work with them.") In mid-November, AOL announced it
was beefing up its search capabilities by buying a Seattle startup
that specializes in audio and video search.
The other Internet heavyweights, eBay and Amazon, see Google's
huge user base, its growing push into commerce, and—soon—its need to
keep Wall Street happy as potential threats to their businesses.
So is Google, as they used to say about Amazon, toast?
Doubtful. But the fight to stay at the top will be brutal—a
sobering thought for those waiting to buy in. After an IPO, Google
will have mounds of cash, but money alone won't hold off the likes
of Microsoft. It's easy to picture Microsoft using its Windows
monopoly to lasso people into using its search—even if its search is
slightly clunkier than Google's. That scenario won't happen, says
Brin. He thinks the company with the superior technology will
triumph: "If they force users to use MSN Search and it's inferior,
it will cause lots of problems for them." Instead of locking in
users, Google will go on creating services that keep them coming
back voluntarily. He points to Google News, where users can sign up
to be e-mailed whenever a story appears that contains a word or
phrase they're interested in. "I wouldn't pursue anything—what's the
buzzword? sticky?—for the sake of having something sticky. Users
will put up with it for a while, but at the first opportunity
they'll change. So I'm not a big fan of handcuffing," he says.
It's typical Google idealism. But then, the founders have proved
that the Google culture can create opportunities where conventional
wisdom (and experience) sees none. Soon, though, whatever they do
will have to be done with shareholders in mind—a prospect that makes
seat-of-the-pants governance impossible. Of all the searches done on
Google, one that can't yet be answered is whether this company is
ready for prime time.
Feedback: fvogelstein@fortunemail.com