The United States and Political
Reform in Egypt: A New Era
By Michele
Dunne
In
reporting on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's April 12 visit to George Bush's
Texas ranch, the press
focused on Bush's endorsement of Ariel Sharon's plan to withdraw from the Gaza
Strip. Nearly all commentators overlooked the more notable aspect of Mubarak's
visit: the fact that a U.S. president had for
the first time raised the subject of democracy with his Egyptian counterpart.
While
Mubarak was surely unhappy with the position Bush took on Palestinian issues
last month, that turn of events also served his interests by diverting
attention from Bush's comments during the bilateral meeting and in the press
conference afterward. "President Mubarak and I spoke about the future of
the region and of Egypt," Bush said,
adding that "just as Egypt has shown the way
toward peace in the Middle East, it will set the standard in
the region for democracy by strengthening democratic institutions and political
participation." These remarks excited virtually no media comment, even
though prior to the visit prominent members of Congress, along with the
editorial page of the Washington Post, had urged Bush to raise the issue
of democracy with Mubarak. Observers may have misinterpreted the significance
of Bush's public remarks because of the positive way in which they were
phrased, though anyone familiar with presidential meetings knows that any
criticism of a friendly leader during a visit would be phrased gently.
For the
past twenty years, economic reform in Egypt has been a leading subject on the
U.S.-Egyptian agenda, and human rights and political reform have crept onto the
working-level agenda during the past five years. But the most important
bilateral contacts—U.S. president to Egypt president—have
focused on regional issues such as Arab-Israeli peacemaking, counter terrorism,
and Iraq. Thus until now,
the Egyptians understandably have believed that regional issues were all that
mattered to the United States. This is why
Bush's August 2002 letter to Mubarak expressing concern over the case of civil
rights activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim came as such a shock to the Egyptians,
despite the fact that the U.S. ambassador in Cairo and even the secretary
of state had been raising the issue with the Egyptian government since
Ibrahim's 2000 arrest. It is clear that if the U.S. president does not
mention an issue, it does not really count with Mubarak, or probably with any
foreign leader.
Now
President Bush has broken the pattern. Bush's remarks and the
painstakingly-negotiated joint statement (which notes the ongoing debate on
reform in Egyptian society and the March 2004 Alexandria Statement on Arab
Reform as providing "a constructive foundation for further efforts toward
democracy and development") contain a clear call for, and expectation of,
meaningful steps toward political reform. Mubarak's endorsement of the Alexandria declaration, while
clearly not a commitment to implement any specific measures, provides the Bush
administration with a locally-generated agenda for reform on which to engage
with Mubarak.
Now the
question is what effect Bush's statements will have in Egypt. As a proud
country with a record of regional leadership in ancient and modern history, Egypt is loathe to accept dictates from abroad regarding its domestic
policies. But the current international discourse of democracy and reform is a
powerful one, and Mubarak and his ruling National Democratic Party are
demonstrating that they feel the need to respond. The most promising indication
of change is that a public debate is now underway about lifting the Emergency
Law, in place continuously since 1981. The government-appointed National
Commission for Human Rights has prepared a report on the subject for the
Ministers of Interior and Justice. Lifting the Emergency Law would still leave
in place a system of regular laws and constitutional provisions that
effectively deny Egyptians the ability to change their government. Yet, it
would be an important step symbolically and would have a positive impact on
respect for human rights. The abrogation of the law would also present the
Egyptian government with a number of difficult practical problems, such as what
to do about the more than 15,000 administrative detainees now in prison (most
of them Islamists) and the need to retrain a whole generation of police and
security officers to do their jobs with more limited powers.
As for the
United States, consistency and
follow-through in promoting reform will be essential, as Egyptian policy makers
typically outlast their American counterparts on long-term issues. Other
American actions such as support for Sharon's positions and
the abuse of detainees in Iraq undeniably will
dog every step of the administration's efforts on democracy and reform.
Nonetheless, with the April 12 meeting the United States turned a new page
in its bilateral relationship with Egypt—one on which the
issue of political reform is clearly inscribed. This step should be noted for
the record and commended.
Michele Dunne is a professor of Arabic at Georgetown
University.
From 2002 to 2003, she served as director for Middle
East Regional and North African Affairs
on the staff of the National Security Council.
Arab Reform Journal
May 2004