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Impact of changing Saudi-South Asian
geopolitical equation on
Pakistan
21 January,
2006
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Faryal Leghari
Assistant
Researcher, GCC-Pakistan Relations
Gulf
Research Center, Dubai
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The Indian government’s
diplomatic efforts appear to have paid off with
King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia
visiting India, the first by a Saudi head of
state in five decades, as part of his Asian
tour, which includes Pakistan. Though Pakistan
was initially not on the agenda, it was later
included at the behest of President Pervez
Musharraf, who extended an invitation to the
King at the OIC Summit in Makkah in
December.
The fact that Pakistan is the
last stop on the planned tour holds several
strategic political implications. Some vital
issues that are expected to be discussed when
King Abdullah reaches Pakistan on February 1 are
furthering economic investments and trade
opportunities, Iranian nuclear issue, enhancing
defense cooperation and collaborating on
devising and implementing a joint strategy to
fight terrorism. In addition, a great deal of
attention is bound to be on Kashmir, about which
President Musharraf has recently put forward
some initiatives. Reviewing the earthquake
relief efforts and Saudi interest in the
implications of the Iran-Pakistan-India gas
pipeline could also be subjects of
discussion.
To start with, however, the
focus will be on Pakistan’s proposed agreements
in the economic, political and defense sectors.
These include:
• A convention for the
avoidance of double taxation and prevention of
fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on
investments;
• An agreement on scientific and
technical cooperation;
• A MoU on cooperation
for control of illicit trafficking of narcotics
and drugs;
• An agreement on security
cooperation;
• An agreement on cooperation
in education and scientific fields;
• An
agreement on encouragement and reciprocal
protection of investment; and
• An agreement
outlining the mutual political consultation
between the foreign ministries of the two
countries.
The above indicates that
economic cooperation will be the focus of
bilateral talks. Pakistan is in the midst of an
economic upturn and 2005 saw the fastest pace in
real GDP growth at 8.4 percent. While bilateral
trade stood at $2.83 billion in 2005 compared to
$2.13 billion in 2004, remittances from Saudi
Arabia increased to $627 million in 2005 from
$565 million in 2004.
In the realm of
trade and investment, one particular opportunity
that could be discussed is the investment
potential for Saudi Arabia in Gwador Port that
is to be completed this year. Gwador could serve
as a major refining center and depot for crude
oil that could then be supplied to China’s
Xinjiang province via the land route passing
through Khunjarab pass in the Karakorams. It
could also be an ideal investment spot for real
estate and tourism besides a transit storage
port for commodities such as agricultural
products and food grains in addition to the oil
and oil industry products to be shipped to
Central Asia and the Far East.
Beyond the
economic realm, one of the strategic issues in
focus is Iran’s nuclear program and the
resulting geopolitical, regional and
international repercussions. It is clear that
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia share security
concerns and apprehensions in case of Iran
acquiring a nuclear capability as this would
severely upset the regional stability. Thus,
Saudi Arabia will ask Pakistan to mount stronger
diplomatic as well as political pressure on Iran
to dissuade Tehran from its current
confrontational course, as well as to convey
clear messages about the seriousness of the
current situation. With US Vice-President Dick
Cheney just having visited Riyadh, discussing
regional developments, King Abdullah will
undoubtedly be able to inform President
Musharraf about the current thinking in
Washington with the clear intention of
forwarding the same to Tehran.
At the
same time, it is equally clear that Saudi Arabia
will also hold discussions with the Pakistani
leadership about receiving technical help in
case of a further deterioration in the security
scenario, including the possibility of extending
nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia with joint
consultation and approval of the United States.
Given the fact that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
have a long history of military cooperation in
technical terms, as well as training, further
cooperation even on nuclear issues cannot be
excluded. Moreover, aspects of joint military
production could figure prominently in the
upcoming talks.
Another crucial item on
the agenda is terrorism which was the central
theme at the OIC Summit held in Makkah.
Pakistan’s key position as a front player in the
struggle against terrorism could be conducive
for joint collaboration with Saudi Arabia to
develop a functional strategy to target
terrorism in the Islamic world at the grass root
level as well as developing scientific and
research collaboration. This was highlighted in
the Makkah declaration as part of the reforms
needed by the Islamic world. Pakistan’s
expertise and the resources offered by Saudi
Arabia could work well together.
The
discussions are then likely to shift toward the
situation in Kashmir with the Pakistan
government determined to discussing its own
peace initiatives on Jammu and Kashmir with King
Abdullah as a follow-up of the closed-door
meeting held between the King and President
Musharraf and Mirwaiz Umer Farooq, Hurriyat
Chairman, at the OIC summit in Makkah. During
this meeting, King Abdullah was apprised of
Pakistan’s recent initiatives. As Saudi Arabia
has in the past unequivocally supported
Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir’s right of self
determination, seeing this case as having close
similarities to the situation in Palestine,
Pakistan will expect King Abdullah to urge India
to bring about a peaceful political solution to
Kashmir and in turn support the proposals put
forward by President Musharraf on self
governance, demilitarization and a specific plan
for India to withdraw its forces from Srinagar,
Baramullah and Kupwara in return for Pakistan’s
commitment to do everything within its power to
ensure that there would be no terrorist activity
in these towns. Till now, these ideas have been
rejected by India based on the grounds that they
are not feasible unless there was a complete
cessation of cross border terrorism and violence
perpetrated by Pakistan-based terrorist groups.
Overall, Saudi Arabia could contribute
to the ongoing peace dialogue between Pakistan
and India with the ongoing composite dialogue
now in its third round and the current climate
being one of clearing the air of tensions
between the two rivals. Yet, the fact that King
Abdullah’s trip will come after his visit to
India means that effectively he will be
delivering Indian messages on the matter to the
Pakistani government rather than the other way
around. The general expectation amongst the
ruling circles in Pakistan is that King Abdullah
after being apprised at the Makkah summit of the
situation in Kashmir would be able to better
judge the situation and convey his reading of it
and the desire to see stability in South Asia to
the Indian side. Beyond any unlikely concrete
movement, King Abdullah will, at a minimum, be
able to convey his analysis on the Indian
position and provide his assessment on how
Pakistan should frame its policy given the
Indian stance.
Though this is being
termed a protocol visit, there are vital
strategic issues that are at the helm. Pakistan
realizes the long-term significance of King
Abdullah’s visit to India and has asked for
Saudi Arabia’s proactive role in resolving vital
strategic issues. The general perception in
Pakistan towards the visit is an expectation for
Saudi Arabia to stand by its past policies and
continue its balanced and fair policy without
reneging on its commitment to the Kashmir cause.
Yet, the Pakistan leadership will begin to
realize that they have to contend with India’s
growing economic importance for Saudi Arabia and
the change in the strategic equation where
Pakistan traditionally enjoyed a monopoly. It
would require intelligent foresight to develop
platforms whereby its long-standing economic,
cultural and political ties could be
strengthened without losing out to the new
developments with an economically robust India.
As such for Saudi Arabia, strategic issues such
as the nuclear issue with Iran will be of higher
concern than the Pakistani insistence to focus
on the Kashmir problem. Whether Pakistan will be
willing to offer a greater degree of military
cooperation in order to tie Saudi interests to
their own, should be closely
watched. | |
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